Guestimates

Guestimates a day keeps the fear of unstructured thinking away.

Easy one to start with:
Let’s guess the number of cars sold in Delhi (Why Delhi Later/on):
Let’s think thru the approach first and then build up on it.

Easy mode: Population — Income Group of families- Car ownership in no.(1, 2 or 3) in a family & Cabs — Divided by lifetime of a car. That’s it.

Population : ~2cr
Family types: HNIs & Ultra upper middle class ~5% with 2 cars each in a family

Upper Middle & Middle : ~25% — 1 car /fam

Let’s assume of this 30% families have personal driven car & 5% rely on commercial cabs
2*((5%*2 + 30%*1)/5(family size)+(5%*1))

16lac+10lac= 26lac

Of this we can assume 70% cars are petrol, for family (15 years avg life)
For commercial cabs — 90% cars will be diesel/CNG (~10 years avg life)

16/(15*0.7+10*0.3)+10/(0.9*10+15*0.1)
=1.2+1

= 2.25Lac approx+ 30% new owners/new car buyers (GIven 30% middle class being aspirational)

= 2.25*1.3= ~3Lac

Related posts:

Hey guys! TikTok has become the latest craze and it’s not just for dancing and lip-syncing anymore. You can actually make some dough on this platform if you know how to play your cards right. I’ve…

I recently sat in on a seminar about regression applications in business. I was somewhat surprised by what was included and what was left out. Many applied statistics courses/text books put a lot of…

Entre melodias sacras, cantos melismáticos[1] e partituras carregadas de neumas[2], o homem não era visto como um indivíduo, mas sempre como parte de um coletivo. Tivemos, então, a sociedade se…