Marcel Brands and His January Transfer History

By: Ryan Williams

As many of you are acutely aware, the January transfer window is right around the corner and Everton have needs based on injuries and performance. Yet some have suggested that Marcel Brands does not like to do business in the January window. I decided to take a closer look to determine if that is indeed true.

While we should certainly take Marcel Brands at his word, some perspective is needed. First of all, this Everton side is far from where it needs to be and from where Marcel Brands wants it to be. He’s show propensity to turn over almost his entire inherited senior team within 2–3 years at both AZ and PSV, so surely he recognizes that Everton still has both significant needs and current players that aren’t good enough. Beyond that, based on his words and circumstances, it’s worth considering whether or not Everton have “injuries” or is “in trouble”?

Everton certainly has injuries. While I don’t think it’s a real possibility that Everton will get relegated, it’s hard to ignore the gaping hole in both numbers and quality at CM/DM, the lack of depth at CB (and perhaps quality), and lack of quality in attack depending on tactics and the usage of Richarlison. It’s also possible to imagine a situations that even after a brutal December schedule, Everton could still be within striking distance of European spots. The PL is down this seasons and some bigger teams appear to have some obvious vulnerabilities.

Brands also purchased a handful of players from Mexico and South America at both clubs in the January window. Hector Moreno was a shrewd purchase from Pumas in Mexico and eventually became a key player at AZ. Brands also acquired a couple players on his way out at each club that were more buys for the future. Celso Ortiz from Cerro Porteno in Paraguay emerged at AZ and other clubs after Brands departure. The book is still out on Max Romero, but he was a similar purchase for PSV from Velez Sarsfield in Argentina.

Last season with Everton Brands did not bring in a new face, however this seems to be an anomaly. In his prior 13 winter windows with AZ and PSV, Brands brought in at least one player in 12 of them. Granted, he did different business with each club, but there are a few obvious things we can almost guarantee will NOT happen. He will almost certainly not buy a player over 25 and will only bring in an older player via loan to meet an obvious squad need.

Brands invested in the future, but also seemed willing to move on players that he didn’t see a future for or that wanted to move. At AZ, Ron Vlaar was frustrated by a lack of playing time and actually wanted a move to Ajax, but Brands shipped him out to Feyenoord in the winter window instead. Gretar Steinsson was moved on to Bolton even without a natural in house RB replacement, likely because of a significant fee offered and knowing that AZ wasn’t going to content for the league at that point. Ari was a questionable sale in January of 2010, but he wanted to leave and wasn’t playing. Pocognoli never really panned out after AZ, so that might’ve been a savvy deal.

If anything, this analysis has brought to life for me is that the idea that Brands won’t be active in January is overblown. I believe that regardless of his attitude about the short window, Marcel Brands will enter the January market for the right player based on past behavior. I don’t believe the inactivity in his first January with Everton was an indicator of what we can expect from Brands this January. He will definitely not be afraid to dump players if a good deal in put in front of him.

Based on his history at AZ and PSV, he moved a vast majority of the roster he inherited within 2 years. So I would not be surprised to see other players he inherited moved like Cenk Tosun — even if he continues to insist he doesn’t want to leave — and even Morgan Schneiderlin if he got the right offer even if it’s a position of need. I think we can expect Oumar Niasse to go for a free if against opportunity presents itself and certainly if teams want to make a deal in January for any of the loan players, I’m sure Brands would entertain it.

I do expect Brands to make a move for an athletic CM/DM via loan that can contribute right away. Central midfield was a strength of his AZ and PSV teams, yet much of Brands transfer business has been focused on attacking positions. I personally believe this was the insistence of Marco Silva. Quality in his inside forward and CF positions are critical in his tactics and past transfer history indicates those are the players he spends significant funds to acquire. We can expect Marcel Brands to address ALL squad positions in due time and thus I would’ve expected him to address the spine of the team at least in the summer. Unfortunately, injuries have made that a more immediate priority. I also believe if the right deal presents itself, Brands could pursue a loan deal for a CB as well.

As noted previously, we still need to consider the other major factors that could affect the level of player movement this upcoming window. A new manager may have tactical preferences that we simply don’t have the personnel for. We also may need to generate significant revenue in player sales if we are indeed up against the FFP restrictions. It’s very difficult to say whether or not this was the reason business was limited this summer until we see the yet to be released Everton statement and just how large a loss the team has taken in the past fiscal year.

Regardless, I believe Everton need a boost this winter and am excited to see what happens. You can be assured that we will have plenty of transfer target analysis and content here at Toffee Targets as the rumors start to fly.

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